Welcome to the Hyperdrive daily briefing, decoding the revolution reshaping the auto world, from EVs to self-driving cars and beyond.
New Briefs
- GM and LG find a Bolt battery fix; replacements start next month.
- Uber extends zero-emissions pledge to food delivery.
- London’s largest taxi firm will go fully electric by 2023.
The State of C.A.S.E.
Hi everyone, Nick Albanese here, head of BloombergNEF’s Intelligent Mobility research team. Munich recently hosted IAA Mobility 2021, the largest automotive event in Europe since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.
As my colleague Andrew Grant wrote, electrification announcements took center stage. But automakers and parts suppliers also shared new plans for advanced driver-assistance systems, robotaxis and more. Taken together, these pronouncements reaffirm BNEF’s view that the future of mobility won’t just be electric, but also connected, shared and autonomous.
Intel’s Mobileye and car-rental company Sixt, for example, announced plans to start an autonomous robotaxi service in Germany next year. Volkswagen and Argo AI, meanwhile, revealed plans to launch an autonomous ride-sharing service, also in Germany, by 2025 via VW’s in-house brand MOIA. VW also said it expects roughly 15% of its business to come from autonomous shuttles and mobility-as-a-service offerings by the end of the decade.
Corporate strategy announcements like these, along with venture capital and private equity investments in mobility companies, have become so commonplace that it’s easy to forget each segment of the transition to connected, autonomous, shared and electric — or C.A.S.E. — vehicle technologies are on their own respective paths. To offer some more context, I ran the numbers to calculate just how quickly each of these technologies are taking hold in the global passenger vehicle market, compared to where BNEF sees them evolving over the coming years.
C.A.S.E. Adoption
How quickly cars are becoming connected, autonomous, shared and electric
Source: BloombergNEF
Note: Connected, Level-2 autonomous and electric-vehicle values refer to global shares of passenger vehicle sales. Shared-mobility value refers to global share of passenger vehicle kilometers traveled.
Connected
“Robotaxis continue to dominate headlines, but automakers have already made connected and level-2 autonomous vehicle technologies relatively mainstream — without much fanfare,” my colleague Grant wrote. In fact, as of the first half of this year, BNEF estimates almost 60% of global passenger vehicle sales came with embedded telematics, some of which offer over-the-air software upgrades and infotainment services as well as safety and convenience features. These features are very popular with drivers. During Ford’s second-quarter earnings call, for example, CEO Jim Farley shared that the number of Mustang Mach-E customers who have opted into these available connected services is over 95%.
Autonomous
To be clear, no vehicles are available for sale today that are fully autonomous. But level-2 autonomy is offered in vehicles with advanced-driver assistance systems offering features such as automatic emergency braking and lane-keeping assistance. These features deliver improved safety and convenience to drivers. BNEF’s latest data shows that over 40% of global passenger vehicle sales now offer ADAS as at least optional to customers, if not standard. This could exceed 90% as soon as 2030 based on automakers’ targets and government policies.
Shared
Among the four C.A.S.E. technologies, shared-mobility services like Uber and Zipcar have seen the slowest adoption — at least as measured by miles traveled. Though the global number of digital ride-hailing users is around 1.3 billion, BNEF estimates the global share of passenger vehicle kilometers driven in shared vehicles is still below its pre-Covid high of 5%. This could approach 20% by 2040 as shared robotaxis begin to scale.
Electric
According to BNEF’s latest report, global passenger EV sales approached 2.6 million units in the first half, hitting a new record of 7% of global passenger-vehicle sales. Europe leads with a noteworthy 16% share of sales, and China is not too far behind at 11%. North America is still lagging with just 3% EV penetration. The global share could approach 70% by 2040 as battery prices continue to fall.
That’s the state of C.A.S.E. as of this year’s halfway point. We’ll publish BNEF’s 3Q 2021 Intelligent Mobility Market Outlook in the coming weeks, so stay tuned.
Before You Go
Opportunities are emerging for investors in the unfolding boom in commodities being delivered by adoption of clean energy and zero-emissions transport. The transition could require as much as $173 trillion in energy supply and infrastructure investment over the next three decades, according to BNEF, and will fuel massive growth in demand for raw materials including lithium, cobalt, copper and rare earths. That will benefit manufacturers, miners and traders, and could drive further gains in already surging green stocks. “The time to invest and make money is this decade,” says Jessica Fung, head strategist at Pala Investments. “The time is now.”
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