With Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone 15 launch kicking off on Tuesday, the company’s stock has historically proven to take a hit after its annual events. Yahoo Finance Markets Reporter Jared Blikre tracks Apple shares ahead of tomorrow, forecasting the positive boost the stock could receive in October.
Video Transcript
SEANA SMITH: Well, consumers and investors waiting for Apple's expected iPhone launch tomorrow. Jared Blikre is here with a closer look at how Apple stock usually moves around these types of events. What should we expect?
JARED BLIKRE: Seana, it's usually a sell the news event. Right now we have Apple up just marginally, and this is what usually happens the night before the event and then the morning of, and then you get to the event and we sell off. I'm going to show that in a second. Just want to show all the green on this NASDAQ 100 screen.
Here is a look at Apple over the last six months. As I've been talking about over the last few weeks, this big drop here into oversold territory. That was the biggest such drop from a record high that we've ever seen in Apple. Never happened before at that speed. Now we experienced another big down day last week, and we're just trying to recover from that. But having said that, we're only down about 10% from record highs, so not like a disaster is impending here.
But I did want to show some of the negative seasonality surrounding Apple stock, and I went all the way back to 2007. You might remember that's when the iPhone 1 was first announced at the June Worldwide Developer Conference, and that purple line right there is Apple stock, and then this red line right here is what happens in the overnight market. You can see it generally drifts higher. And then the orange is the full day return, while the cyan is the day session only.
So you can see that when you average the-- when you add the red to the blue here, you get the orange. That's a full day return. What you need to take away is that it tends to drift lower over time, although I would say, last year in September, and these events have moved to September over the years, from June last year we actually saw a little bit of an uptick.
Regardless of what happens tomorrow, I've also been tracking what happens historically in the entire month of September. As it turns out, September has always been bad for Apple, Apple stock, for whatever reason. Going back to its debut in 1980, if you had invested $1,000 and only spent it in September, going all the way back to 1981, the first full year of trading, you would now have about $80. That's a loss of 92%.
Now, you look at how this book ended by August and October here, 637% for August, 750% for October. If you're holding out for October, waiting for that big bump up, just consider that August was a negative month for-- August was a negative month for Apple, so it's already bucking the seasonality here. There could be reasons for that, declining revenue.
I've talked about that at length, but just to get back to the fundamentals here, what we can expect for the big day tomorrow, probably see a little drift overnight. I have seen that on the day of the announcement we do get a little fireworks in the stock when things are announced, but for the most part, it is a slightly sell the news event. Certainly not a catastrophe, guys.
SEANA SMITH: All right, well, investors got to hold on to that stock if we're going by historical standard here, at least through until October. All right, Jared. Thank you.
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September 12, 2023 at 03:30AM
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Could Apple stock drop after iPhone launch event? - Yahoo Finance
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