“Average” is an everyday word. We want to know the average temperature, a batting average, the average home price, the .
What does average mean for a stock? The average market value in the S&P 500 is $60 billion, and the median is $23 billion. (The S&P is slightly top-heavy.) On average, 21 analysts cover each S&P stock. The average S&P 500 Buy-rating ratio—Buy recommendations divided by total recommendations—is 53%; the average Sell-rating ratio is 7%. The average analyst price target for an S&P stock implies a gain of about 6%. The Dow has an average market cap of $280 billion, and 30 analysts cover an average Dow stock. The average Buy-rating ratio is 55% to a Sell-rating ratio of 6%. The average price target works out to a 7% gain.
Barron’s sought the most average stocks in the S&P 500 and the Dow and came up with FedEx and JPMorgan Chase, respectively.
Some 53% of FedEx analysts rate its shares Buy, 3% Sell. The average price target of $171 implies a 4% gain, admittedly a little below average. But the market cap is $43 billion, between the S&P 500 median and average market caps. Some 29 analysts cover JPMorgan, with 55% urging Buy, 3.4% Sell. The average price target works out to a 16% gain, a little better than average.
How has average done? FedEx stock returned about 8% a year, on average, for 10 years, versus the S&P 500’s 14%. JPMorgan gained 13%, on average, for a decade, versus the Dow’s 13%. Not bad. Average.
Last Week
Tech Looks Down
The markets rose on vaccines, stimulus, and tech. Upbeat reports on vaccine trials drove AstraZeneca, Pfizer, and BioNTech, all with big federal contracts; Tesla and Microsoft posted strong earnings; and European stimulus and U.S. talks provided hope. But an uptick in new weekly jobless claims, to 1.4 million, and more bad Covid-19 and China news, sent stocks, led by tech, down and gold up. For the week, the Dow industrials fell 0.8%, to 26,469.89; the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, to 3215.63; and the Nasdaq Composite had a rare 1.3% decline, to 10363.18.
Briefings Return
With Covid deaths rising again—they passed 145,000—tensions between states and the White House deepened. Hospitals across the U.S. began to fill. More states and cities tightened lockdowns and mandated masks. Others refused to move past recommendations, backed by the president, who still insisted the virus would “disappear.” New York City entered phase 4 of its reopening. The president resumed coronavirus briefings, suggested that mask-wearing might be necessary, and canceled the Jacksonville, Fla., leg of the Republican Convention.
Stimulus: The Food Fight
Congress returned, tackling a fifth stimulus measure, with unemployment support ending July 31. Democrats want aid to state and local governments and a renewal of the $600-a-week federal jobless benefit. Republicans failed to unite on a plan, clashing with the White House over funds to reopen schools, a payroll tax, direct payments, and testing funds. Meanwhile, 27 European Union leaders hammered out a Covid spending package worth $2 trillion and $859 billion in stimulus. The EU will issue debt, a first, and a step toward fiscal union.
Conflict in Portland
Controversy raged over use of camouflaged federal agents in Portland, Ore., where Department of Homeland Security officers appeared, despite local and state opposition, amplifying tensions. DHS claims they are protecting federal buildings and monuments. On Thursday, Trump threatened to “surge” as many as 75,000 federal agents into U.S. cities.
The New China Trade
The U.K. backed out of an extradition treaty with Hong Kong, while the U.S. closed a Chinese consulate in Houston, claiming spying was going on, and added 11 more Chinese companies to a trade blacklist. China retaliated by closing the U.S. consulate in Chengdu.
Annals of Deal-Making
EBay agreed to sell its classified business to Norway’s Adevinta for $9.2 billion, retaining a 44% stake, with 33% voting rights…Ant Group, a fintech founded by Alibaba Group co-founder Jack Ma, plans an initial public offering in Hong Kong and Shanghai… Chevron is paying $5 billion for oil-and-gas company Noble Energy...Goldman Sachs agreed to a $3.9 billion settlement with Malaysia over the 1MDB scandal.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
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Why ‘Average’ In Stocks Isn’t Bad - Barron's
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