Investors turn focus to next week's CPI print
On Tuesday, investors will digest one of the most important data points the Federal Reserve will consider in its next interest rate decision: October's Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The report is expected to show headline inflation of 3.3%, a deceleration from September's 3.7% annual gain in prices, according to estimates from Bloomberg. Over the prior month, consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.1% in October, a slower clip than September's 0.4% monthly increase.
Lower energy costs are likely to have held the headline figures to a smaller gain.
On a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in October are expected to have risen 4.1% over last year — matching the annual increase seen in September, according to Bloomberg data. Monthly core prices are expected to have climbed 0.3%, also matching September's monthly rise.
"Subdued increase in October’s headline CPI is likely to be overshadowed by another firm reading in the core," Wells Fargo wrote in a note ahead of the report.
The bank said core CPI is likely to signal "slower progress on inflation," adding: "While shelter disinflation likely resumed in October, the steady drag from health insurance is set to flip to a boost with this month’s release. Goods deflation probably has paused."
Wells Fargo's team expects that core CPI will still be rising about 3% annually by this time next year, noting "slower inflation in the months to come does not necessarily mean victory on inflation."
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November 11, 2023 at 08:02AM
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