Consumer confidence ticked up in November as Americans got a head start on their holiday shopping.
The consumer confidence index increased in November to 102, the Conference Board reported, ahead of economists’ expectations for 100.9, according to FactSet, and October’s revised reading of 99.1. This reverses three consecutive months of decline in confidence.
The gains in confidence stemmed from a slightly better outlook in future economic conditions. The expectations index, which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for business, income, and labor market conditions, rose to 77.8 in November from 72.7 in October.
Despite the improvement, the index remains below 80 for a third month in a row – a level that historically signals recession within the next year, according to the Conference Board.
"While consumer fears of an impending recession abated slightly--to the lowest levels seen this year--around two-thirds of consumers surveyed in November still perceive a recession to be somewhat or very likely to occur over the next 12 months," the Conference Board said.
Respondents are still preoccupied with rising prices, followed by geopolitical conflicts and higher interest rates, according Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board.
November’s results remain consistent with the “short and shallow” recession the Conference Board is still anticipating in the first half of 2024.
Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide, agrees, adding that consumers are still casting “a wary eye on the future.”
“We expect a much weaker pace of economic growth in the fourth quarter following the third quarter’s blowout spending spree,” he wrote on Tuesday. “Conditions are expected to deteriorate further in the new year with a mild recession likely to take hold in the first half of 2024.”
But as Barron’s has previously noted, consumers have remained surprisingly resilient this year, and could continue to give the economy a much-needed boost well into 2024.
-- Ed Frankl of Dow Jones Newswires contributed to this article.
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November 29, 2023 at 01:06AM
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